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I am going to short the whole country of South Africa
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
Thats why this place is so special.
Listen 5 years ago I wanted to get into investing. I came to this sub to get some advice. One guy helped me with a stock I could invest in.
It was dipping for a few days and I kept asking what I should do and he said hold. Kept quoting Warren buffet
On the third day I panicked and told him I had to sell. He sent me a video and told me to watch it before I sold.
It was a guy getting railed by jpow.
I lost 400 dollars that day but it taught me some lessons.
Now look at me. Been investing for over 3 years now. I was even on this gme thing. Yeah I could of made 8x the profits instead of 4 but I consider that my own fault.
But through this great sub and everything I have learned, I reinvested my profits and as of today
I am down 5 grand. Thats why this place is so special.
Listen 5 years ago I wanted to get into investing. I came to this sub to get some advice. One guy helped me with a stock I could invest in.
It was dipping for a few days and I kept asking what I should do and he said hold. Kept quoting Warren buffet
On the third day I panicked and told him I had to sell. He sent me a video and told me to watch it before I sold.
It was a guy getting railed by jpow.
I lost 400 dollars that day but it taught me some lessons.
Now look at me. Been investing for over 3 years now. I was even on this gme thing. Yeah I could of made 8x the profits instead of 4 but I consider that my own fault.
But through this great sub and everything I have learned, I reinvested my profits and as of today
I am down 5 grand. Thats why this place is so special.
GME $1000 IS NOT A MEME
πππ UPVOTE/GILD SO PEOPLE CAN SEE πππ
LISTEN TO ME. DO NOT SELL TOMORROW. OR ANY DAY THIS WEEK. Drops are coming. They are counting on fear to beat us. Itβs the only weapon they have on us, but it wonβt work because we are retarded. The people are finally taking the power back from these boomer hedge fund big money shorting douchebags - the same people who fucked everyone over in 2008 with CDOs and continue to fuck you over to this day. Get ready to make Melvin throat hard retard dick. We only have strength if we stay in this TOGETHER. HOLD THE LINE. THE SHORT SQUEEZE HASNT HAPPENED YET. Donβt pussy out you fucking idiots. $1000 IS NOT A MEME. I love you all, you beautiful autistic bulls. Hang tight while we ride this thing into the FUCKING STRATOSPHERE.
APES TOGETHER STRONG π¦ π π
πππ UPVOTE/GILD SO PEOPLE CAN SEE πππ
LISTEN TO ME. DO NOT SELL TOMORROW. OR ANY DAY THIS WEEK. Drops are coming. They are counting on fear to beat us. Itβs the only weapon they have on us, but it wonβt work because we are retarded. The people are finally taking the power back from these boomer hedge fund big money shorting douchebags - the same people who fucked everyone over in 2008 with CDOs and continue to fuck you over to this day. Get ready to make Melvin throat hard retard dick. We only have strength if we stay in this TOGETHER. HOLD THE LINE. THE SHORT SQUEEZE HASNT HAPPENED YET. Donβt pussy out you fucking idiots. $1000 IS NOT A MEME. I love you all, you beautiful autistic bulls. Hang tight while we ride this thing into the FUCKING STRATOSPHERE.
APES TOGETHER STRONG π¦ π π
a tesla drives down the street in 2021
the year is 2021
A tesla drives down the street
unknowing of the danger behind it
a beast of American metal and lightning
The driver realizes he is in danger in his commie-fornia shoebox
He presses the pussy pedal as hard as he can
It cannot save him, he can hear the music already
"THIS IS GAWWWWWD'S COUNTRRRRRYYYYYYY"
He realizes he is already dead
In an instant he becomes like a fly in the grill of a truck
In the grill of the Ford F-150 EV
It stops for no one
the year is 2021
A tesla drives down the street
unknowing of the danger behind it
a beast of American metal and lightning
The driver realizes he is in danger in his commie-fornia shoebox
He presses the pussy pedal as hard as he can
It cannot save him, he can hear the music already
"THIS IS GAWWWWWD'S COUNTRRRRRYYYYYYY"
He realizes he is already dead
In an instant he becomes like a fly in the grill of a truck
In the grill of the Ford F-150 EV
It stops for no one
Wallstreetbet's Christmas break
Gonna be checking the market every chance I get while pretending to think my brother-in-law's Cards Against Humanity answers are funny.
