She sells seashells on a seashore
But the value of these shells will fall
Due to the laws of supply and demand
No one wants to buy shells 'cause there's loads on the sand
Step 1: you must create a sense of scarcity
Shells will sell much better if the people think they’re rare, you see
Bare with me, take as many shells as you can find and hide 'em on an island
Stockpile 'em high until they’re rarer than a diamond
Step 2: you gotta make the people think that they want 'em
Really want 'em, really fuckin' want 'em, hit 'em like Bronson
Influencers, product placement, featured prime time entertainment
If you haven’t got a shell, then you're just a fucking wasteman
Three: it's monopoly, invest inside some property
Start a corporation, make a logo, do it properly
"Shells must sell", that will be your new philosophy
Swallow all your morals, they're a poor man's quality
Four: expand, expand, expand
Clear forest, make land, fresh blood on hand
Five: why just shells? Why limit yourself?
She sells seashells, sell oil as well
Six: guns, sell stocks, sell diamonds, sell rocks
Sell water to a fish, sell the time to a clock
Seven: press on the gas, take your foot off the brakes
Then run to be the president of the United States
Eight: big smile mate, big wave, that's great
Now the truth is overrated, tell lies out the gate
Nine: Polarise the people, controversy is the game
It don't matter if they hate you if they all say your name
Ten: the world is yours
Step out on a stage to a round of applause
You're a liar, a cheat, a devil, a whore
And you sell seashells on the seashore
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5 men 9 eyebrows 1 dream
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I am going to short the whole country of South Africa
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
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The Rock: "cmon jabroni"
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Molly
Danksteed of Infinite Value
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