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Hey Kripp-kun. It's me Samantha-chan!
twitchquotes:H-hey Kripp-kun. It's me Samantha-chan! I know you don't know me that well, I sit in the column closest to the door and in the back row. Oh yeah, duh... LoL, we have Chemistry together with Ms. Raphatello. Ughh, she's such a b****! Anyways I'm being such a baka (LoL that's Japanese for idiot!). Oh, do you like Anime too? I'm sure if you gave it a chance you would too if you don't already watch it ~_~. I always look at you in Chemistry and you never seem to notice me... BAHHH WHAT AM I DOING?!?! GOMENASAI Artour-kun (gomenasai means sorry in Japanese ^.^). Just wanted to say hello and I really love your stream! Good luck Kripp-kun!
H-hey Kripp-kun. It's me Samantha-chan! I know you don't know me that well, I sit in the column closest to the door and in the back row. Oh yeah, duh... LoL, we have Chemistry together with Ms. Raphatello. Ughh, she's such a b****! Anyways I'm being such a baka (LoL that's Japanese for idiot!). Oh, do you like Anime too? I'm sure if you gave it a chance you would too if you don't already watch it ~_~. I always look at you in Chemistry and you never seem to notice me... BAHHH WHAT AM I DOING?!?! GOMENASAI Artour-kun (gomenasai means sorry in Japanese ^.^). Just wanted to say hello and I really love your stream! Good luck Kripp-kun!
I am going to short the whole country of South Africa
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
Hello Kripp, I am Pappargoth the Ancient
twitchquotes:╭(◕◕ ◉෴◉ ◕◕)╮ Hello Kripp, I am Pappargoth the Ancient, an Alien from the Planet Hardcore. We sent you to Earth, where your hardcore-ness would conquer the planet. We see you have failed in the mission and become casual.
╭(◕◕ ◉෴◉ ◕◕)╮ Hello Kripp, I am Pappargoth the Ancient, an Alien from the Planet Hardcore. We sent you to Earth, where your hardcore-ness would conquer the planet. We see you have failed in the mission and become casual.
I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps
twitchquotes:Trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable *** off the face of the continent, you little ***. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your *** tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will *** fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re *** dead, kiddo.
Trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable *** off the face of the continent, you little ***. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your *** tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will *** fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re *** dead, kiddo.
This is your father Vyascheslav from Moskva
twitchquotes:Hello Kripparian, this is your father Vyascheslav from Moskva. I have started working overtime at the power plant, and your sister Tatyana has gone to Berlin to sell her body to Kraut swine for money. We do all this to pay for your "Stoned Heart of the Cards" game. Please win tournament and send us rubles soon, so our family can be together again.
Hello Kripparian, this is your father Vyascheslav from Moskva. I have started working overtime at the power plant, and your sister Tatyana has gone to Berlin to sell her body to Kraut swine for money. We do all this to pay for your "Stoned Heart of the Cards" game. Please win tournament and send us rubles soon, so our family can be together again.